In Just One Week

The week between Christmas and New Year is supposed to be slow in the news business.

Donald Trump left the Republican Party and changed his registration to unaffiliated, causing unaffiliated voters everywhere to reconsider their lack of commitment.

Rick Perry was asked about the proposed Keystone oil pipeline from Canada to Texas.  He’s in favor of it because “Every barrel of oil that goes south is one barrel of oil that we will not have to import from foreign countries.”  I’m not making this up.  You don’t have to make up stuff about Rick Perry.  He does it to himself. Maybe he knows something about Canada that the rest of us don’t, like that it’s really part of Montana?

Aren’t you going to miss Rick when he packs up and goes back to Texas?

Gary Johnson became the fourth candidate to officially leave the Republican Party presidential cavalcade (Not counting those who were courted but refused to run in the first place, including Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, Haley Barbour, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Jeb Bush, Bobby Jindal, Paul Ryan, John Thune and the aforementioned Trump) and became the Libertarian Party’s tenth candidate for president. In so doing, he went from obscure to invisible.

Rick Santorum is being talked about as a viable candidate.  Really.

Newt Gingrich, facing the prospect of finishing fourth in the Iowa caucuses, continued his positive campaign by promising not to say anything negative about the people he considers incompetent ignoramuses who are challenging him for the nomination.

Gingrich proved unable to find 10,000 people in Virginia – the state where he lives – to sign a piece of paper saying he ought to be allowed to run for president.  Not that they would work for him, vote for him and even consider him, but just that he should be allowed to run if he wants.  Having failed to thus qualify for the primary ballot, Gingrich declared Virginia has a “failed system” because nothing is ever his fault. He then announced he would launch a vigorous write-in campaign, unaware that his home state does not allow write-in candidates in primaries.  If he didn’t know that as a resident or a presidential candidate, then as a self-described renowned historian he should have know Virginian has never in its history allowed write-ins in primaries.

Michele Bachmann’s Iowa campaign manager quit her campaign because, he said, she couldn’t win the nomination.  Later that day he joined Ron Paul’s campaign, presumably because he thinks Paul can win.  Bachmann claims the campaign manager told her he was given a large sum of money to defect.  What he really said was more along the lines of “you couldn’t pay me enough to vote for you.”

Mitt Romney campaigned at a corporate headquarters in Des Moines where he spoke mostly to the building because, as only he knows, corporations are people.

It appears likely either Romney or Ron Paul will finish first in the Iowa caucuses.  Either way, Romney wins.

2016: The In Crowd

Pundits are back pedaling so fast on their predictions for the Republican nominee for President that they are bumping into themselves coming forward with new predictions.

There were the “don’t underestimate Michele Bachmann” pundits, the “Sarah Palin must be running because why else would she be doing this” pundits, the “Huckabee has a lock on the Christian right” pundits, and the “(fill in the blank) will surprise a lot of people” pundits.

Standing apart, in a swirling sphere of his own is poor, hapless George Will.  In 2007 Will said that the candidate who had a lock on the Christian right and was the one to watch for the nomination was Sam Brownback, who dropped out after the Iowa Straw Poll.

In 2010, Will said the clear Republican choice to challenge and defeat Barbara Boxer in California was Chuck DeVore who finished third in his party’s primary to Carly Fiorina and Tom Campbell. Boxer went on to handily defeat Fiorina.

This year Will had his act together.  And he knew as early as May.

 “This is the most open scramble on the Republican side since 1940 when Wendell Willkie came out of the woodwork and swept the field.  I think — people are complaining this is not off to a brisk start. I think that’s wrong. I think we know with reasonable certainty that standing up there on the West front of the Capitol on Jan. 20, 2013 will be one of three people: Obama, Pawlenty and Daniels. I think that’s it.”

George Will is the Sports Illustrated cover of political punditry.

I’m not going to claim to be of that caliber.  I’m not going to claim to have any political acumen at all.  But if you look at the trend, you can see who will be a serious contender for at least a day in 2016.

Mayor Bruce In of East Fairmont Oklahoma.  Never heard of him?  Doesn’t matter.  It’s all about the trend.

In 2008, the Republican nominee was John McCain.  Right now the Republican frontrunner is Herman Cain.  Doesn’t take a genius to spot the trend:

McCain – [Mc]Cain – [Ca]In.

Being mayor of East Fairmont isn’t a full time job.  It does pay ten dollars a meeting, but a fellow needs a little something more to sustain himself.  Mayor In is a dentist. And don’t try to trip him up with fancy reporter “gotcha” questions.  He knows all the ways to twist the “the doctor is in” joke.

Is the doctor In?

Yes.

May I see him?

He’s not here.

I thought you said he was In.

He is.

Well then I’d like to see him.

He’s out.

He’s out?  I don’t understand.

What’s there to understand?  In is out.

In is out?

That’s what I said.

And I suppose Black’s white and Wright’s left.

As a matter of fact…

Do I expect the professional pundits to spot this trend and get In on it?  Will won’t.